Pellucid reports that April's weather posted an 11 percent increase in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the month compared to the same period last year. This positive month continues the perfect roller coaster pattern for the first four months of the year (down, up, down, up) with the April year-to-date now registering 1 percent lower in GPH vs. the same period in 2007.
Using Pellucid's refined tracking for 2008 which now breaks the country into 45 regions defined by latitude, elevation and maritime influence, 24 regions are registering declines of 2 percent or greater in GPH for the year-to-date (YTD) compared to 16 showing increases of 2 percent or more (the remaining 5 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2% vs. YA). This creates a negative breadth ratio of 1.5:1 behind the neutral national YTD reading. All regions are now reporting GPH results meaning we'll see a more balanced national perspective and less volatility in percent changes vs. year-ago at the regional level.
Looking back at March's weather results vs. Golf Datatech's recently released rounds results, the industry registered a 61 percent Utilization Rate for the month compared to the 2007 national benchmark of 52 percent. This means that, although rounds were down 8 percent for the month, the industry outperformed Mother Nature's influence. Encouragingly, for the first three months the national Utilization Rate rests at 56 percent or up 4 points vs. the 2007 full-year rate of 52 percent.
"Were I a betting man, I'd bet that the April rounds results will be up vs. year-ago when they're released next month," says Pellucid president Jim Koppenhaver "The March results, however, do make a compelling case as to why we bother to track historical weather performance and impact. While the industry headlines to the March rounds played press release opened with 'Golf industry in doldrums,' the fact of the matter is that the industry actually improved percent utilization at the national level. This doesn't change the stark reality that rounds (and therefore probably revenue) were down for the month, but intelligent operators will refrain from significantly altering programs implemented in March based on the impact of an uncontrollable factor."
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid's Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to "controllable" vs. "uncontrollable" factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid's weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking and a sample report, interested parties should contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
