In about 30 days, the dulcet tones of Jim Nantz will announce that the first player has teed off at Augusta National for the 2006 Masters.
Holy magnolias, it’s already that time again!
It’s almost the beginning of yet another season, and that prompts me to ask The GCN Swami a few questions about the year ahead to hear his predictions about how golf will fare in 2006:
1. Will Mother Nature be naughty or nice to us this year? The North has had a pretty mild winter so far, which gives us all cause for hope of a great spring and plenty of nice weekends for play. It also leads us to wonder when the other shoe will drop. My pessimistic guess is a cold and wet spring will shorten the season once again. But, I live in Cleveland where pessimism is required by local statute, so take that with a grain of salt.
2. Will the golf market bounce back big this year? Nope.
3. Is that all you have to say? Yup.
4. OK, explain. In 2005, play was dead flat, again, for about the bazillionth year in a row. There’s no reason to believe that we’ll see any kind of big jump in 2006. It’s all about the weather and localized economic conditions. Also, last year, we opened 125 facilities and closed 93 (according to the National Golf Foundation’s always entertaining statistics). I predict 2006 will be the first year – perhaps since the Great Depression – we shut down more facilities than we opened.
5. Wow, that’s bad, right? Not necessarily. We need to cleanse the market a bit. Remember, the number of courses grew by almost 40 percent during the past 20 years, while play only grew about 21 percent. You don’t need to be Alan Greenspan to figure out that we have more supply than demand.
6. Who’s Alan Greenspan? The Swami says you need to read the newspapers occasionally.
7. So, will the market will tank in 2006? Not a chance. Like I said, we’ll be pretty much flat nationally, but flat is better than going backwards. Remember what happened to the tennis business in the ‘80s and ‘90s? It hit the toilet faster than a tourist in Mexico City. There’s no reason to think that will happen to golf. Our connection to real estate and relatively steady play gives us a big advantage. In the big scheme of things, staying flat is a big victory for our industry.
8. What’s that mean for the overall market? In 2006 – and maybe the next five years – we’re going to see an unprecedented dogfight for market share at every level of the industry. Courses are going to beat each other up over rounds. Distributors will slice each others throats for customers. Suppliers will mangle competitors to take business from each other. From top to bottom, only the strong will survive. And, that’s not a bad thing. We’ll be healthier for it in the long run.
9. Last question: Who’s going to make the biggest contribution to the golf business this year? Elin Woods.
10. Huh? Can you say, “Tiger Junior”?
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