With all the turbulence in the economy, employment and the golf industry in general, July's flat performance for Golf Playable Hours (GPH) compared to 2008 should be a calming influence, reports Pellucid.
At the national level, July's GPH were down 0.6 percent compared to the same period last year. That keeps the Year-to-Date (Ytd) weather impact in the neutral zone at less than 1 percent different vs. the same period in 2008.
The YtD regional breadth ratio (measured as the number of regions up compared to the number of regions down) declined slightly but remains positive at 1.3:1. This is comprised of 19 regions up vs. 15 down with the remaining 11 weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2 percent with all 45 regions "in play"). Leading the "weather blessed" key rounds-contribution regions for the July YtD period are Ohio Valley North and Mid Continental North with GPH favorability of 10 percent-plus. On the "weather challenged" side of the ledger, key rounds-contribution regions Florida North and Northeast US are down more than 5 percent each in GPH for the YtD period.
Looking back at the previously-reported weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played shows that the June Percent Utilization Rate (UR) suffered a drop to 46 percent or a meaningful decline of 2 points vs. the 2008 national annual benchmark (comprised of a 3 percent decrease in rounds against a 2 percent increase in GPH). Pellucid's Market-Level Weather Impact tracking identifies the biggest gainers and losers in Percent Utilization Rate for 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth shows 13 geographies up compared to 20 down and 28 in the neutral zone or a negative market-level breadth ratio of 1:1.5. Leading the "utilization winners" are Cleveland, San Antonio and the Northeast states while Hawaii and Chicago are atop the "utilization losers" list for the YtD period.
"Uncharacteristic of me, I'll take the middle of the road on the YtD weather impact,” says Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver. “It's neither as good as nor as bad as it could have been – apologies to Yogi Berra. At the industry level, we've got our hands full navigating the choppy waters without having to deal with unfavorable weather so, as an industry-level stakeholder, I'd take steady.
“The challenge continues to be the ebb and flow of weather across markets which underscores why just counting rounds variance doesn't tell the whole story,” Koppenhaver says. “Take Chicago as an example, we've lost 6 points of utilization through June with flat rounds results but driven by the fact that GPH is up 14 percent vs. last year. Net, a pretty solid weather summer this year on which we haven't been able to capitalize. The rounds tracking would say Chicago's fine while we're actually working with our local clients to understand what's not working and helping them taking corrective actions.”