Proving once again that "all weather is local," despite meaningful shifts across markets in Golf Playable Hours (GPH), the sum net total at the national level remained in the neutral zone at -1.7 percent compared to the same period last year, Pellucid reports. That brought July's marginally-positive Year-to-Date (YtD) weather impact back to dead even (0.0%) through August compared to the same period in 2008. In other words, Pellucid president Jim Koppenhaver says, we've played 11 holes of the annual weather round with no result.
Beneath the national calm, the YtD regional breadth ratio (measured as the number of regions up compared to the number of of regions down) continued its slight decline but remains positive at 1.2:1. This is comprised of 17 regions up vs. 14 down with the remaining 14 weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2 percent with all 45 regions "in play").
Leading the "weather blessed" key rounds-contribution regions for the August YtD period are Mid-Continental North, Ohio Valley North and Ohio Valley South with GPH favorability of 5-percent-plus. On the "weather challenged" side of the ledger, key rounds-contribution regions Pennsylvania East/N.J./N.Y. and Northeast U.S. are down in GPH for the YtD period in excess of 5 percent.
Looking back at the previously-reported weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played shows that the July Percent Utilization Rate (UR) inched up slightly to 49 percent or a negligible gain of 0.3 points vs. the 2008 national annual benchmark (comprised of flat rounds demand against a 1 percent decrease in GPH). Pellucid's Market-Level Weather Impact tracking identifies the biggest gainers and losers in Percent Utilization Rate for 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth shows 11 geographies up compared to 16 down and 34 in the neutral zone or a slightly negative market-level breadth ratio of 1:1.5. Leading the "utilization winners" are San Antonio and Arkansas while Hawaii and Chicago continue to top the "utilization losers" list for the YtD period.
"It's somewhat amazing and mathematically improbable that through seven months of the year at the national level we could come back so close to even par on both rounds and weather impact,” Koppenhaver says. “While there is considerable variance at the regional and market level, in this big lottery which is the national golf rounds and utilization picture, the positives and negatives are cancelling each other out. That said, there's still interest, value and instruction in tracking and understanding how different markets arrive at gains or losses. For example, our two biggest losers, Hawaii and Chicago, are different stories. Hawaii is down 15 percent in rounds offset slightly by a 6 percent drop in GPH. Chicago is up 1 percent in rounds despite a 12 percent increase this year in GPH. Both produce a 4 to 5 point loss in Percent Utilization.
On the pricing and revenue side of the equation, PGA PerformanceTrak's July YtD Executive Summary is showing an unyielding decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue (-5 percent) driven by a continued decrease Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round (-3 percent). There are variations in this theme across the different facility types.
