June turned in another flat performance for Golf Playable Hours (GPH) compared to 2008. At the national level, June's GPH were up 1.5 percent compared to the same period last year. That keeps the Year-to-Date (YtD) weather impact in the neutral zone at plus-1 percent vs. the same period in 2008.
Interestingly, the YtD regional breadth ratio (measured as the number of regions up compared to the number of regions down) remains positive at 1.4:1. This is comprised of 21 regions up vs. 15 down with the remaining nine weather-based regions recording neutral results (+/-2percent with all 45 regions "in play"). This dichotomy is manifest in the key rounds-contribution regions for the June YtD period. Seven regions are showing weather favorability (up 5 percent-plus in GPH) led by Mid-Continental North and Ohio Valley (both North and South). That weather favorability is being offset by significant weather unfavorability (-5 percent-plus) in five key rounds-contribution regions led by East Pa./N.Y./N.J. and Florida North.
Looking back at the previously-reported weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played shows that the May percent Utilization Rate (UR) was steady against at 49 percent or a negligible gain of 0.2 points vs. the 2008 national annual benchmark. Breaking this down, we saw a 1 percent increase in rounds against a 1 percent increase in GPH.
Pellucid's May percent Utilization tracking also now provides another level of detail tracking 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth shows 26 geographies up compared to 20 down and 15 in the neutral zone. Leading the "utilization winners" are Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio, while North/South Dakota and Minneapolis sit at the bottom of the list as the "utilization biggest losers."
"As many of the industry cheerleaders have pointed out previously, flat is the new up,” says Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver. “We've been fortunate this year to date with all the other challenges in our industry and the economy in general that we haven't hit a weather buzzsaw. The new market-level utilization report is quantifying what we've known all along; even in tough macroeconomic conditions there are operators and marketers figuring out how to get it done, regardless of weather and other uncontrollable factors.
“For example, even though most of the Northeast and the Eastern Coast are having unfavorable weather years, markets like Philadelphia (GPH down 9 percent, rounds down 2 percent, utilization up 4 points) are finding ways to win. On the pricing and revenue side of the equation, PGA PerformanceTrak's May YtD Executive Summary is showing a 4 percent decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue and a 2 percent decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round (slightly higher because they're reporting a YtD rounds increase of 1 percent). The monthly trend line in revenue and average rates appears to be declining at a slightly accelerating rate but, compared to previous years with relatively little macroeconomic stress, we're still holding up on the revenue side relatively well in my opinion. The challenge on the revenue side however is the economic stability of facilities with the key question being, ‘How many of them can continue going sideways on revenue and for how long?’"
