October's national weather showed a meaningful decline in golf playable hours (GPH) down 6 percent compared to the same period last year, Pellucid reports. The unfavorable weather month dragged the October year-to-date (YtD) results down slightly to 0.5 percent compared to the same period in 2007, a statistically neutral level.
The decline for the month is the first significant dip since March and opens the calendar fourth quarter with a headwind to rounds. The regional breadth ratio (measured as the number of regions up compared to the number of regions down) remains in negative territory at 1:2.1. This means that 10 regions are showing GPH gains for the year of 2 percent or more opposed by 21 regions with GPH decreases of 2 percent or more (the remaining 14 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2 percent). The neutral national GPH results, coupled with the negative breadth indicator mean the more broad unfavorable weather is happening in the lower rounds-producing regions. Ten regions experienced double-digit declines in GPH led by the Great Lakes East and Northern Rocky Mountain regions while no regions recorded double-digit increases for the month.
Looking back at the previously-reported September weather results vs. the recently-released industry alliance rounds played information (Golf Datatech, NGF, PGA of America and the NGCOA) shows a noticeable drop in the key measure of percent Utilization Rate (UR) of 4 points to a monthly level of 47 percent. This means that the 8 percent decline in rounds reported for the month significantly lagged the flat GPH results of +0.5 percent for the month.
Pellucid president Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, "With all the other factors buffeting the industry (time compression, economy, lack of pricing power and rising expenses), the October unfavorable weather might be characterized as Mother Nature ‘piling on.’ We anticipate that the October rounds will report out down 4 to 8 percent at the national level. Looking at the September rounds results, our clients are reacting to the hard reality that the decline in rounds is due to shifting consumer behavior and requires customer marketing vs. just writing poor performance off as the result of the ‘uncontrollable’ variable of weather. It may also be yet another datapoint which suggests that golf might be recession-resistant but it's far from recession-proof as the industry veterans and cheerleaders have consistently asserted."
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid's Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report. Facility-level weather impact is now also a component of Pellucid's Initial Facility Analysis offering which provides a 3-D view of local market health, weather impact (both recent and the benchmark 10-year norm) and customer franchise health as a foundation for marketing plan refinements or upcoming annual planning.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking including a sample report and pricing, contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
