Pellucid reports that November's national weather showed another meaningful decline in Golf Playable Hours (GPH), down 7 percent compared to the same period last year. The unfavorable weather month dragged the November Year-to-Date (YtD) results down slightly to +0.1 percent compared to the same period in 2007 (still statistically neutral).
The decline for the month snuffed out the hopes of many northern courses to finish a tough year in rounds and revenue with a late surge. The regional breadth ratio (measured as the number of regions up compared against the number of regions down) remains in negative territory at 1:2.1. This is comprised of 11 regions showing GPH gains for the year of 2 percent or more opposed by 23 regions with GPH decreases of 2 percent or more (the remaining 11 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2 percent). The neutral YtD national GPH results, coupled with the negative breadth indicator, mean that the more broad unfavorable weather is happening in the lower rounds-producing regions. Year-to-Date, Florida North is showing a 10 percent gain in GPH while two regions, Desert SW East (Phoenix) and Central CA Valley South (Fresno), are showing GPH declines in double digits.
Looking back at the previously-reported October weather results vs. the recently-released industry alliance rounds played information (Golf Datatech, NGF, PGA of America and the NGCOA) showed an unexpected gain in October for the key measure of percent Utilization Rate (UR) of 3 points to a monthly level of 55 percent. This means that the flat rounds results (+0.5 percent) reported for the month significantly bettered the GPH decline of 6 percent previously reported by Pellucid. For the YtD however, Utilization rate still lags the 2007 year-end mark of 52 percent by 0.9 points.
"I've got to eat my words on October which I predicted would be a rounds decline month of 3 to 6 percent based on the weather,” says Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver. “Given the macro economic conditions and the anemic health of the golf industry within that, the fact that rounds are still very close to '07 levels is encouraging. November will be another data point to see if rounds buck the negative weather trend or whether – bad pun – we follow the weather down another notch.
“Beneath the U.S. averages, there are some interesting stories playing out comparing rounds to weather at local levels,” he says. “On the positive side, Texas is having a very strong year for rounds (+8 percent) with no help from the weather (down 2 to 3 percent). On the negative side, destination locations Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach are off 16 percent and 7 percent respectively against flat weather results YtD. What it's made clear to us is not only is ‘all golf local’ but by applying local weather to local rounds, we can also highlight how ‘all performance is local.’ Our clients with regional and national scope benefit from our ability to separate both good and bad performance after weather is taken into account. We've also been able, as a disinterested third party, to enlighten owners and lending institutions regarding the performance of their investment void of current operator, manager or PGA professional ‘spin.’”
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid's Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report. Facility-level weather impact is now also a component of Pellucid's Initial Facility Analysis offering which provides a 3-D view of local market health, weather impact (both recent and the benchmark 10-year norm) and customer franchise health as a foundation for marketing plan refinements or upcoming annual planning.