Pellucid reports that May's national weather was very similar to 2007, posting a 1% decline in Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the month compared to the same period last year. This statistically flat month breaks the previously consistent up-down monthly pattern in 2008 and left the year-to-date (YTD) results unchanged, with GPH remaining 1% lower through the end of May vs. the same period in 2007.
The May development and YTD results is a negative breadth ratio across Pellucid's 45 regions; however, the national aggregate remains neutral vs. year ago. The YTD breadth ratio deteriorated to 1:2 with 12 regions posting increases of 2% or more in GPH opposed by 24 regions with GPH decreases of 2% or more (the remaining 9 regions are in the neutral zone or +/-2%). This means positive weather is benefiting almost all of the key rounds-producing regions (CA, TX, AZ and SE Coast) while being offset by weather unfavorability in most of the lower rounds-producing regions.
Looking back at April's weather results vs. Golf Datatech's recently released rounds results, the industry registered a 48% Utilization Rate for the month compared to the 2007 national benchmark of 52%. This means the 2% increase in rounds underperformed the 11% increase in GPH for the month. That puts the industry for the first 4 months of the year right back where it started (giving back a previously slight utilization improvement) at a national Utilization Rate of 52%.
"My bet back in April was that we'd see a rounds increase behind the favorable weather so I would've won the bet but we didn't get the desired outcome," says Pellucid president Jim Koppenhaver. "To hold Utilization Rate at the national level, we needed a 6% increase in rounds so we fell short of capitalizing fully on Mother Nature's beneficence for the month. What's unfolding here is a tale of two markets; operators in the key rounds regions have had the benefit of favorable weather for the early part of the calendar year and part of their peak season. For the other geographies, Pellucid's HQ in Chicago for example (-5% YTD), it's been a slow weather start for the critical first couple of months in their season. That said, I've learned from experience not to make early or snap judgments on initial results and there's still lots of golf to be played as it relates to weather and its impact on the 2008 summer golf season."
Find more information on Pellucid's weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.