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Pellucid reports March's weather posted a 21 percent decline in golf playable hours for the month compared to the same period last year.
This negative month sets up a roller coaster pattern for the first three months of the year (down, up, down) with the quarter finishing 10 percent lower in GPH vs. the same period in 2007.
Using Pellucid's tracking for 2008 that breaks the country into 45 regions defined by latitude, elevation and maritime influence, 24 regions saw a decline of 2 percent or greater in GPH for the year-to-date (YTD) compared to 12 showing increases of 2 percent or more. Rounding out the picture were 7 regions in the neutral zone (+/-2% vs. YA) and the remaining 2 regions still not "open" according to Pellucid's weather rules. This creates a negative breadth ratio of 2:1 driving the national YTD figure. It's important to note that in the "cold season" climate regions there are large fluctuations in percent change during the first quarter which should start to level out as the rest of the country comes into the golfing season in Q2. Looking back at February's weather results vs. Golf Datatech's recently released rounds results, the industry registered a 45 percent Utilization Rate for the month compared to the 2007 national benchmark of 52 percent. This means that, although rounds recorded a healthy increase of 10 percent for the month, we lagged the 28 percent increase in GPH. Encouragingly, for the first two months our 3 percent increase in rounds matches the 3 percent increase in GPH giving us 52 percent Utilization or even with the 2007 mark achieved.
Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, "The March decline in GPH suggests that the rounds played numbers will also tack downward when released next month. The see-saw battle we see playing out in Q1 weather will most probably be the pattern of our year with a challenging economic situation although our weather forecast for the year suggests that we'll finish the gyrations in a slightly up position come December. Being able to separate the weather component of rounds performance will be especially critical this year in order to determine how recession-resistant golf really is."
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid's Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to "controllable" vs. "uncontrollable" factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid's weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
