Source: The News Tribune (Tacoma, Wash.)
Since February, Pierce County leaders have said they will build a world-class golf course in University Place that would pay for itself and soak up sewage sludge.
On Nov. 10, those plans got a jolt. County Council members learned the course will be smaller, cost more than previous estimates and generate far less revenue in its first year of operation than one consultant had projected.
And the question looms: Is the golf course still the unique project that county leaders say will generate revenue to pay not only for itself but also for other public amenities at the county-owned, 930-acre Chambers Creek Properties?
The answer varies depending on whom you ask. In any case, a majority of the seven-member council appears willing to find out. Tuesday, the council is expected to approve a budget for 2005 that includes an additional $ 1.6 million in sewer funds to complete the design of the course.
"I want the design to go forward - you don't cut it off halfway through," said Councilman Dick Muri (R-Steilacoom), one of two council members in April who voted against publicly financing the project. "It's still my vision - and (County Executive John) Ladenburg and I are 180 degrees apart - that there may be some outside investors who are willing to take this on."
When county officials first proposed the idea, they estimated it would cost between $ 12.7 million and $ 16.9 million to build a 27-hole, Scottish links-style golf course on a former gravel mine with a spectacular Puget Sound view.
Now, the project will cost $ 17.47 million, which does not include costs for start-up, planned trails and open space. And instead of a 27-hole course, the course has been reduced to 18 holes.
All told, the golf course could cost as much as $ 20.08 million including $ 2.61 million to get it going, build trails and improve open space.
In 2008, after a full year of operation, officials have projected that the golf course would bring in $ 80,000 after expenses.
In March, the revenue projections were different. A county consultant - Golf Catalyst Inc. of Boulder, Colo. - said a 27-hole version of the golf course designed by architect Robert Trent Jones II would bring in $ 943,000 in its first year of operation.
'FIRE-SALE PRICES'
The numbers surrounding Pierce County's project have changed even as the golf industry has experienced its own market fluctuations, including a glut of courses, according to experts.
Jim Kass, director of research for the National Golf Foundation, said, "Demand grew significantly in the late '80s and early '90s, and everyone said 'Hey, time to build a course.' Then demand precipitously flattened out, somewhat to the point that you don't necessarily need all of those courses."
A Nov. 15 Sports Illustrated story uses statistics from the National Golf Foundation to describe the state of the industry: "Rounds per year in the U.S. have gone down for the past three full seasons, from an all-time high of 518.4 million in 2000 to 494.9 million in 2003. That's fewer rounds than were played in 1999 (496.4 million). The result? Greens fees have gone down, revenue has shrunk, and untold scores of courses have either been forced into bankruptcy or been unloaded at fire-sale prices."
The magazine article caught the attention of several council members last week.
"I'm going to read that," Muri said. "I've got about 10 e-mails saying 'You've got to read the Sport Illustrated article.' "
Kass said creating a unique and successful golf course in Pierce County will depend heavily on marketing and retaining customers.
"Whether you're Pebble Beach or Tacoma, you're going to face the same challenge of any golf facility, which is attracting and retaining various kinds of customers, including women and minorities," he said. "If it's going to be super high-end, then a lot of it's going to depend on branding and marketing. Are they going to hire the best marketing (company) to get this thing out there for the maniac golfers?"
County officials say they've done the research and are aware of the challenges. They also point out that they've put together a team that includes the Jones design firm and KemperSports Management, which manages more than 70 golf courses, including the highly successful Bandon Dunes on the Oregon coast.
Jason Blasi, a design associate for the Jones firm, said the course got better - not worse - when the price edged up and the number of holes became 18.
"Some of that feasibility stuff that you write down on paper goes a little bit out of the window when people really want to play 18 holes," he said. "After going through concept after concept, our thought was the best golf course to put on there was an 18-hole golf course."
Blasi said several changes have been made to improve the course, including moving holes closer to the water. And reducing the course to 18 holes allowed more room to do other things, he said, including building a bigger practice facility.
"It's an honest design change done in the best interest of the project," he said.
Blasi added: "We certainly hope and think that the project will be one of those special places that can buck the trend, and you can throw all the negative logic out of the window because it's so special."
CROSSED FINGERS
The golf course is intended to transform a former gravel mine into an economic engine and vehicle for disposing of treated water and sludge from the county's regional wastewater treatment plant.
Under County Executive Ladenburg's plan, the county would cover the construction and start-up costs by selling bonds, then use revenue from the course to pay off the debt. Revenue from the golf course also could pay for other public projects, including an arboretum, a botanical garden, trails and sports fields.
"What we're given is an opportunity to not only speed up the (master) plan, but that if the golf course more than breaks even, it can help finance the rest of the plan," Ladenburg said. "I think that will happen."
The council agreed with Ladenburg in April when it voted 5-2 to borrow $ 1.3 million in sewer fees to pay for the design of the golf course.
Councilman Calvin Goings (D-Puyallup) said he hopes the conditions the council attached to the project succeed. Those conditions include requiring Ladenburg to regularly report the costs of the project to the council and making sure greens fees for county residents are always substantially lower than those for nonresidents.
The county hopes to begin construction on the golf course in fall 2005 and open it for play in May 2007.
Does Goings think the golf course is unique enough to stand above the rest?
"I have my fingers crossed," he said.