After a record-setting October, Mother Nature was again benevolent to golf at the national level in November. Pellucid reports that Golf Playable Hours (GPH) for the month of November were up almost 16 percent compared to the same period last year. This benevolence by Mother Nature pulled the year-to-date (YTD) GPH results into positive territory (+0.4 percent) for the first time since March.
The favorable climate results for November however were driven by only four regions which were up more than 10 percent or more each. This translated into the YTD regional breadth ratio remaining relatively constant with gainers outnumbering decliners by a ratio of 2.0:1 (10 regions with favorable GPH vs. five regions with unfavorable GPH and 9 in the neutral zone). The recently-released Golf DataTech rounds played numbers for October appear to confirm our hypothesis that golfers are more like bears than squirrels (i.e. better spring weather drives more rounds than a longer season). Rounds for the month were up 7 percent against Pellucid's previously-reported GPH results of +25 percent in October. This meant that although October was a solid month for rounds demand in the absolute, we underperformed the national weather favorability by 5.6 points.
"As we near the end of the season with roughly half the country now in hibernation, it appears that weather compared to last year will not be a significant factor at the national level," Pellucid president Jim Koppenhaver says. "This means that whatever rounds gains we eke out in 2007 will be the result of hard-fought efforts at individual facility level to entice golfers to play more at their facility this season. Encouragingly, it also appears that Pellucid's national annual forecast of +1 percent GPH will be relatively close to the actual results. It's shaping up to be a weather-neutral year vs. 2006 and probably a slight increase in rounds demand (but nothing to write home about). As long as net new supply doesn't exceed 1 percent this year, we'll see stabilization in velocity (annual rounds per 18 hole equivalent) which would be welcomed by the average facility operator."
More detail on the results from national to individual facility level can be obtained through combinations of Pellucid's Weather Impact Analyses: The Regional Weather Impact Tracking report, the Facility 10-year Weather Impact Trend report, the Facility Annual Weather Impact Analysis and the Facility Monthly Weather Impact Tracking report.
Parties interested in understanding and quantifying what part of rounds and revenue performance is due to "controllable" vs. "uncontrollable" factors (i.e. course owners, lenders, buyers, sellers, equipment manufacturers, retailers and service providers) can find more information on Pellucid's weather capabilities at www.pellucidcorp.com.
For more specific information on the Regional Weather Impact Tracking report and to receive a free sample, interested parties should contact Jim Koppenhaver at jimk@pellucidcorp.com.
