December weather not friendly to golf

Although only a fraction of the U.S. was playing golf in December, the results for our warm climate constituency were unfriendly as the month's Golf Playable Hours (GPH) were down 10 percent for the total U.S. vs. December 2008. That had negligible impact at the US level for the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH results (+0.7 percent) but the downward impact in warm climates will undoubtedly show up in the rounds played results for the year.

Looking at the YtD weather impact breadth ratio results (measured as # of regions up compared against # of regions down), we finished the year with a negative breadth ratio of 1:1.6. This is comprised of 9 regions up vs. 14 down with the remaining 22 weather-based regions recording neutral results. Leading the "weather favorable" key rounds-contribution regions for the year were Mid Continental, Ohio Valley (North, Central and South) and PA West all with GPH favorability of 5 percent +. On the "weather challenged" side of the ledger, only two key rounds regions finished the year in the GPH deficit range of -3 percent or more for the year, Florida North and Gulf Coast.

Looking back at the previously-reported November weather results vs. the industry alliance rounds played, the Utilization Rate (UR) was off slightly as anticipated behind very favorable weather during the tail end of the northern season. The month UR was 41 percent or a drop of 7 points vs. the 2008 year end benchmark (comprised of a 16 percent increase in rounds demand against a 36 percent  GPH increase for the month). This supports Stuart Lindsay's "golfers are more like bears than squirrels" theory in that favorable weather early in the season has a much more significant impact on rounds than favorable fall weather. Pellucid's Market-Level Weather Impact tracking identifies the biggest gainers and losers in UR for 61 markets/states/state groups. The market-level breadth for the November YtD period shows only 5 markets/states up compared to 18 down and 38 in the neutral zone producing an increasingly negative market-level breadth ratio of 1:3.6. Leading the "utilization winners" are Houston, San Antonio and Kansas (+3 pts or > ) while Hawaii and Cincinnati finish the year atop the "utilization losers" list (-4 pts or > ).

Pellucid President Jim Koppenhaver comments on the current results saying, "December wasn't kind to the golf industry in the warm weather climates as a whole. It would be a great show of strength for the warmer climates to be able to post anything less than a 5 percent decline in rounds in December when the results come in. Particularly hard hit in December it appears was Texas, with the North and Central parts seeing double-digit declines in GPH which impacted the YtD results. Another potentially negative factor in December which is not reflected in our GPH measures and metrics would be unseasonably cool (but playable) temperatures in warmer weather climates (we use temperature thresholds, not relative temperatures as the season progresses)."

"Consistent with trends we've tracked in our facility clients' data, PGA PerformanceTrak's November YtD Executive Summary continues to show a 5 percent decline in Median Golf Fee Revenue driven by a 4 percent decrease in Median Golf Fee Revenue per Round (rate) and slightly negative rounds demand (volume). On rounds, the negative results are being driven by the Resort segment. On revenue, the Resort and Private sectors are leading the decline. On rate, the mix changes slightly with Resorts and Daily Fee/Semi-Private driving declines. Among revenue classes at facilities, all categories are showing down but Merchandise is the largest percent loser, down more than 10 percent."